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10 Major Geopolitical Events That Moved the Forex Market
Jan 9, 2025
Geopolitical events hold significant sway over the forex market. Unrest in a country can lead to an exodus from that nation’s currency. Conversely, resolving geopolitical tensions can trigger a sudden influx of capital into a currency.
Traders looking to make sense of these occurrences can turn to AI trading tools for help. The algorithms behind these programs can quickly identify emerging patterns in currency price movements to help you get ahead of the markets. This guide will help you start by outlining ten major geopolitical events impacting the forex market.
GoMoon's AI-powered economic calendar can help you achieve your forex trading goals by tracking upcoming geopolitical events that may impact the market.
Table of Contents
Geopolitical Events and Forex: Understanding the Connection
Geopolitical events, such as elections, trade wars, military conflicts, and international agreements, are macro-level developments that disrupt the status quo of global markets. Their relevance to the forex market stems from how they impact investor sentiment. Uncertainty caused by geopolitical turmoil often drives investors toward safer assets. For example, during conflicts or global crises, currencies like the U.S. Dollar (USD), Swiss Franc (CHF), and Japanese Yen (JPY) gain traction as safe havens.
Global Trade Dynamics
Trade agreements or disruptions influence currencies' demand for and value tied to export-heavy nations.
Example
The U.S.-China trade war impacted the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and the Australian Dollar (AUD), given Australia’s reliance on Chinese trade.
Economic Policies and Interest Rates
Geopolitical instability can force central banks to adjust their policies, such as changing interest rates or intervening in forex markets.
Example
During Brexit, the Bank of England used monetary policies to stabilize the British Pound (GBP). Commodities and Currency Pairs Currencies tied to commodities, like the Canadian Dollar (CAD) (oil) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) (agriculture), can be influenced by geopolitical developments affecting global supply chains.
Why Monitoring Geopolitical Events is Crucial for Traders
Volatility
Geopolitical events often result in sharp and unpredictable currency movements, creating trading opportunities and risks.
Market Predictability
Traders who monitor geopolitical developments can anticipate market trends and position themselves advantageously.
Risk Management
Understanding geopolitical triggers helps traders implement effective stop-loss strategies and hedging techniques.
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10 Major Geopolitical Events That Moved the Forex Market
Brexit Referendum (2016)
The United Kingdom shocked the world when it voted to leave the European Union. The immediate aftermath of the June 23 referendum announcement saw the British pound plunge to a 31-year low against the US dollar. A massive wave of uncertainty hit forex markets as traders began to analyze the economic fallout of Brexit, which would include new trade agreements, labor mobility, and market regulations. The GBP/EUR pair experienced unprecedented volatility while safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen gained.
U.S.-China Trade War (2018-2020)
The world’s two largest economies entered a heated trade dispute in 2018. The U.S.-China trade war began with the Trump administration imposing tariffs on Chinese goods to combat unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft, with China retaliating in kind. Both sides would impose tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of goods before reaching a phase one trade agreement in January 2020.
Uncertainty and tensions grew during this period, disrupting both countries' global trade and economies. The Chinese yuan depreciated significantly during the trade war, as China also devalued its currency to support exports. Commodity-linked currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollar also weakened due to reduced Chinese demand for commodities.
COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
The COVID-19 pandemic was a global health crisis that caused widespread lockdowns, disrupting economic activities worldwide. In response, central banks intervened with stimulus packages and rate cuts. During the initial panic, the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen strengthened as safe-haven assets. Emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real and South African rand plummeted as investors pulled out of riskier markets.
Russia-Ukraine War (2022)
The Russia-Ukraine war began on February 24, 2022, leading to disrupted energy supplies, sanctions on Russia, and global economic instability. The Euro weakened as the European Union struggled with energy shortages. Meanwhile, the Norwegian krone gained due to increased oil and natural gas exports. The Russian ruble initially collapsed but rebounded after strict capital controls.
U.S. Presidential Elections (2020)
The highly contentious U.S. presidential election in 2020 and the pandemic heightened market volatility. The USD initially weakened due to political uncertainty but strengthened as stimulus measures were rolled out. The Canadian dollar gained as oil prices stabilized under economic recovery expectations.
European Debt Crisis (2010-2015)
Several Eurozone countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland) faced severe debt crises threatening the stability of the Euro. The Euro weakened as investors feared a breakup of the Eurozone and safe-haven currencies like the USD and JPY gained. Central bank interventions temporarily stabilized the Euro.
The Arab Spring (2011)
Pro-democracy uprisings across the Middle East disrupted oil supplies and led to regime changes in countries like Egypt and Libya. The USD strengthened due to rising oil prices and safe-haven demand. Oil-exporting currencies like the Saudi Riyal and Canadian Dollar were also affected.
Swiss Franc Unpegging (2015)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) removed the CHF’s peg to the Euro, dramatically appreciating the Franc. The CHF surged by over 30% against the Euro, causing massive losses for traders. Central banks and forex brokers struggled to manage the volatility.
OPEC+ Oil Price War (2020)
A pricing disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia led to an oversupply of oil and plummeting prices. The CAD, NOK, and other oil-linked currencies weakened significantly. The USD gained as oil-importing economies benefited from lower prices.
Withdrawal from Afghanistan (2021)
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan signaled a shift in global potential dynamics and contributed to instability in South Asia. Emerging market currencies in the region, such as the Pakistani Rupee, faced pressure due to political and security concerns. The USD gained as investors moved to safer assets.
What Exactly Is GoMoon?
GoMoon transforms economic calendar data with AI-powered insights for smarter trading decisions. Our platform analyzes global events and rates their market impact on a scale of 1-10, helping you understand how they'll affect various assets. We've packed everything traders need: Live economic event streaming, custom notifications, and historical event replay with TradingView charts. What sets us apart is our comprehensive approach to event analysis.
Whether you're tracking the impact of major economic announcements or comparing forecast data with actual outcomes, GoMoon provides straightforward, actionable insights. You can personalize your calendar, stream live meetings directly on the platform, and analyze historical events like the dot-com bubble or the COVID-19 crash to understand market reactions better. GoMoon clarifies the complex world of economic events for traders seeking data-driven decisions. Get started for free to get AI-powered economic insights today.
A Step-by-Step Guide to Using GoMoon to Track Geopolitical Events
Jump Right In: Access GoMoon’s Economic Calendar
The economic calendar is the foundation for tracking major global events. GoMoon’s calendar provides a comprehensive, real-time overview of upcoming geopolitical and financial events.
How to Do It
Log in to your GoMoon account or sign up as a new user.
Navigate to the Economic Calendar section.
Use the customizable settings to filter events by region, currency, or impact level (low, medium, high).
Practical Example
Suppose you are trading GBP/USD. Filter the calendar to display UK and U.S. events and highlight significant announcements like Brexit updates or Federal Reserve meetings.
AI-Driven Event Impact Rating: Know What To Expect
GoMoon’s unique AI-powered impact rating system assigns each event a 1-10 score, helping traders identify which events will likely cause the most market volatility.
How to Do It
Select an event from the calendar (e.g., a central bank announcement).
Review the impact score provided by GoMoon’s AI.
Combine this insight with historical data available in the platform to gauge potential price movements.
Practical Example
An upcoming OPEC meeting has an impact score of 9. Analyze how past OPEC decisions have influenced the USD/CAD pair to plan your trades accordingly.
Set Up Real-Time Alerts and Notifications
In forex trading, timing is critical. Real-time alerts ensure you never miss important events.
How to Do It
Go to the Notifications section on GoMoon.
Customize alerts for specific event types, currencies, or time zones.
Enable email or SMS notifications for immediate updates.
Practical Example
Set alerts for ECB press conferences or U.S. unemployment data releases to adjust your positions in EUR/USD or USD/JPY based on real-time developments.
Analyze Historical Events Using Replay Features
Understanding past geopolitical events and their impacts on forex markets provides invaluable lessons for future trading strategies.
How to Do It
Use GoMoon’s Historical Replay feature to revisit events like Brexit or the 2020 oil price crash.
Pair this analysis with TradingView charts embedded within GoMoon to visualize market reactions.
Practical Example
Analyze the Swiss Franc unpegging event in 2015 to understand how unexpected central bank policies can create rapid market changes. Use this insight to plan for similar scenarios.
Leverage Live Streaming for Real-Time Insights
Live meetings and announcements (e.g., Federal Reserve or European Central Bank press conferences) are critical for on-the-spot decision-making.
How to Do It
Open the Live Streaming feature on GoMoon to watch real-time events.
Use the built-in annotation tools to jot down essential takeaways.
Combine live insights with GoMoon’s commentary for immediate analysis.
Practical Example
During a Bank of England meeting, monitor live commentary and cross-reference with the economic calendar to decide whether to adjust your GBP/USD positions.
Customize Your Trading Strategy Based on GoMoon Insights
Every trader has unique goals, and GoMoon’s personalization options help tailor strategies to individual preferences.
How to Do It
Use the Personalized Dashboard to track currencies or events that align with your trading objectives.
Combine GoMoon’s AI predictions with your analysis to refine strategies for short-term or long-term trades.
Practical Example
If you specialize in trading commodity-linked currencies, set your dashboard to highlight geopolitical events affecting oil-exporting nations like Canada or Norway.
Execute Trades with Confidence
Tracking events is only half the battle. Executing trades at the right time is crucial for maximizing profits.
How to Do It
Use GoMoon’s insights to determine the best entry and exit points.
Apply technical analysis tools within the platform to validate your trading decisions.
Practical Example
After analyzing an OPEC decision using GoMoon’s tools, execute a sell order for USD/CAD if oil prices are expected to rise, benefiting the Canadian Dollar.
What Exactly Is GoMoon?
GoMoon transforms economic calendar data with AI-powered insights for smarter trading decisions. Our platform analyzes global events and rates their market impact on a scale of 1-10, helping you understand how they'll affect various assets. We've packed everything traders need: Live economic event streaming, custom notifications, and historical event replay with TradingView charts. What sets us apart is our comprehensive approach to event analysis.
Whether you're tracking the impact of major economic announcements or comparing forecast data with actual outcomes, GoMoon provides straightforward, actionable insights. You can personalize your calendar, stream live meetings directly on the platform, and analyze historical events like the dot-com bubble or the COVID-19 crash to understand market reactions better. GoMoon clarifies the complex world of economic events for traders seeking data-driven decisions. Get started for free to get AI-powered economic insights today.
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Use Our AI-powered Economic Calendar Tool for Free Today
GoMoon transforms economic calendar data with AI-powered insights for smarter trading decisions. Our platform analyzes global events and rates their market impact on a scale of 1-10, helping you understand how they'll affect various assets. We've packed everything traders need: Live economic event streaming, custom notifications, and historical event replay with TradingView charts. What sets us apart is our comprehensive approach to event analysis.
Whether you're tracking the impact of major economic announcements or comparing forecast data with actual outcomes, GoMoon provides straightforward, actionable insights. You can personalize your calendar, stream live meetings directly on the platform, and analyze historical events like the dot-com bubble or the COVID-19 crash to understand market reactions better. GoMoon clarifies the complex world of economic events for traders seeking data-driven decisions. Get started for free to get AI-powered economic insights today.
What Does GoMoon Offer Traders?
For traders, timing is everything. GoMoon helps traders understand the impact of economic events on the forex market to make better decisions. Our platform lets you organize before a big event, track changes as they unfold in real-time, and analyze the event’s impact afterward.
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